Norwich City vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Norwich City v Derby County — Team-Based Signals
Norwich City vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-1
Norwich City
İNCL
0-1
HT 0-0
Derby County
İNCL
3-4
HT 2-2
Derby County
İNCL
1-1
HT 0-0
Norwich City
İNCL
1-1
HT 1-0
Norwich City
İNCL
Norwich City 1-1 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics
Norwich City and Derby County shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.
Our pre-match lean was Norwich City at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Norwich City had 65% of the ball to Derby County's 35%, shots finished 8-6, expected goals 0.69 to 1.10.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Norwich City and 1.50 for Derby County.
What was the final score of Norwich City vs Derby County?
Norwich City 1-1 Derby County in the England - Championship on 08/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Norwich City vs Derby County?
Before kick-off our model rated a Norwich City win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Norwich City 53%, draw 25%, Derby County 21%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.