Derby County 2-3 Norwich City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 28 Sep 2024

Derby County
2-3 HT 0-1
Norwich City
📅28/09/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Derby County vs Norwich City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.53
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
35%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.78
Over 2.5
40%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.76
No
56%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.01
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.88
6+ Goals
9%
17.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.01 — our 32% vs market 27.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.96
1/2
6%
29.0
1/X
7%
13.95
X/1
12%
5.52
X/2
12%
5.12
X/X
14%
4.52
2/1
7%
31.0
2/2
17%
3.57
2/X
6%
13.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
36%
+1.8pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.5pp
35%
Away Win
38%
-3.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
52%
+7.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
48%
-7.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.4pp
56%
BTTS No
47%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Derby County v Norwich City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derby County EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Norwich City EU Bookmakers 42%
-1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -14%
1.27/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.26
+1% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -11%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
294 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 76%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
18.7 Crosses 17.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.7

Derby County vs Norwich City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derby County
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Norwich City
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.98 xG 1.68
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
294 Passes 450
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.04.2021 Derby County Derby County 0-1 HT 0-1 Norwich City Norwich City İNCL
03.10.2020 Norwich City Norwich City 0-1 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
29.12.2018 Norwich City Norwich City 3-4 HT 2-2 Derby County Derby County İNCL
03.10.2018 Derby County Derby County 1-1 HT 0-0 Norwich City Norwich City İNCL
10.02.2018 Derby County Derby County 1-1 HT 1-0 Norwich City Norwich City İNCL
28.10.2017 Norwich City Norwich City 1-2 HT 0-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL

Derby County 2-3 Norwich City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derby County
2-3
AWAY Norwich City
1.42 xG 1.96
41% Ball Possession 59%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 5
267 Passes 432
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
27 Box Touches 24
24 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Derby County vs Norwich City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Norwich City edged past Derby County 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 28% / 35% — and on the day Norwich City made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Derby County had 41% of the ball to Norwich City's 59%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.42 to 1.96.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derby County had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Derby County and 1.17 for Norwich City.

What was the final score of Derby County vs Norwich City?

Derby County 2-3 Norwich City in the England - Championship on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County vs Norwich City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Derby County 38%, draw 28%, Norwich City 35%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Derby County) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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