Watford 2-1 Sunderland — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.8
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
42%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.21
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.66
6+ Goals
9%
15.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.21 — our 29% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.41
1/2
9%
26.0
1/X
7%
14.05
X/1
11%
6.08
X/2
11%
4.78
X/X
12%
4.74
2/1
6%
32.5
2/2
22%
3.16
2/X
7%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
32%
-0.6pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
42%
Away Win
42%
+0.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.5pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Watford EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Sunderland EU Bookmakers 45%
+5% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +6%
1.46/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/0.85
+23% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +87%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
275 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 75%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.6
22.3 Crosses 17.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Watford
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Sunderland
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.90 xG 1.12
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
303 Passes 354
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
27.04.2024 Watford Watford 1-0 HT 0-0 Sunderland Sunderland İNCL
04.10.2023 Sunderland Sunderland 2-0 HT 1-0 Watford Watford İNCL
29.04.2023 Sunderland Sunderland 2-2 HT 0-1 Watford Watford İNCL
17.09.2022 Watford Watford 2-2 HT 1-1 Sunderland Sunderland İNCL
01.04.2017 Watford Watford 1-0 HT 0-0 Sunderland Sunderland İNP
17.12.2016 Sunderland Sunderland 1-0 HT 0-0 Watford Watford İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Watford
2-1
AWAY Sunderland
1.89 xG 1.01
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
330 Passes 348
81% Pass Accuracy 86%
23 Box Touches 35
10 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Watford vs Sunderland
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Watford squeezed past Sunderland 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Sunderland at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Watford had 49% of the ball to Sunderland's 51%, shots finished 13-17, expected goals 1.89 to 1.01.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Watford and 1.17 for Sunderland.

What was the final score of Watford vs Sunderland?

Watford 2-1 Sunderland in the England - Championship on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Watford vs Sunderland?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sunderland win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Watford 32%, draw 26%, Sunderland 42%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sunderland) ✗ Under 2.5
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