Watford 1-0 Sunderland — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
36%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.8
Over 2.5
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.73
No
55%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.18
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.69
6+ Goals
10%
15.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.18 — our 29% vs market 25.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.23
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
12.95
X/1
10%
4.9
X/2
11%
6.35
X/X
13%
4.17
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
17%
4.67
2/X
6%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
41%
-2.7pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.7pp
36%
Away Win
30%
+5.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
54%
-9.0pp
55%
BTTS No
46%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Watford EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Sunderland EU Bookmakers 34%
+1% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +0%
1.36/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.25
+11% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +15%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
310 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 77%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.4
21.0 Crosses 13.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Watford
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Sunderland
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.02 xG 1.01
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
300 Passes 327
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 24
21 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.10.2023 Sunderland Sunderland 2-0 HT 1-0 Watford Watford İNCL
29.04.2023 Sunderland Sunderland 2-2 HT 0-1 Watford Watford İNCL
17.09.2022 Watford Watford 2-2 HT 1-1 Sunderland Sunderland İNCL
01.04.2017 Watford Watford 1-0 HT 0-0 Sunderland Sunderland İNP
17.12.2016 Sunderland Sunderland 1-0 HT 0-0 Watford Watford İNP
15.05.2016 Watford Watford 2-2 HT 0-1 Sunderland Sunderland İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Watford
1-0
AWAY Sunderland
0.40 xG 1.53
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 3
325 Passes 404
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 35
11 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Watford vs Sunderland
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Watford nicked a narrow win over Sunderland 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 36%) promised a tight game; Watford found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Watford had 46% of the ball to Sunderland's 54%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 0.40 to 1.53 — on chances, Sunderland could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sunderland led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Watford and 1.50 for Sunderland.

What was the final score of Watford vs Sunderland?

Watford 1-0 Sunderland in the England - Championship on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Watford vs Sunderland?

Before kick-off our model rated a Watford win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Watford 38%, draw 26%, Sunderland 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Watford), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Watford) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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