Millwall 1-0 Plymouth Argyle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.0
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
35%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.78
Over 2.5
43%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.81
No
56%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
3.05
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.82
6+ Goals
8%
16.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.05 — our 33% vs market 27.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.78
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.4
X/1
10%
4.45
X/2
14%
7.22
X/X
14%
4.42
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
16%
5.48
2/X
7%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
46%
-9.2pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.8pp
35%
Away Win
27%
+8.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.8pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Millwall EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Plymouth Argyle EU Bookmakers 30%
-2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.23/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.62
-7% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +25%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
352 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 75%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
22.8 Crosses 11.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Millwall
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Plymouth Argyle
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.07 xG 0.79
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
242 Passes 562
72% Pass Accuracy 87%
14 Box Touches 37
8 Crosses 16
6 Yellow Cards 2
03.10.2023 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 0-2 HT 0-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
29.08.2018 Millwall Millwall 3-2 HT 0-1 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNLK
10.11.2015 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 3-5 HT 1-2 Millwall Millwall İNTK
09.08.2011 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 0-1 HT 0-1 Millwall Millwall İNLK
15.04.2006 Millwall Millwall 1-1 HT 1-1 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
30.10.2005 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 0-0 HT 0-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Millwall
1-0
AWAY Plymouth Argyle
1.05 xG 0.34
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 9
312 Passes 189
75% Pass Accuracy 63%
25 Box Touches 19
29 Crosses 20
POST-MATCH Millwall vs Plymouth Argyle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Millwall edged past Plymouth Argyle 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 35% — and on the day Millwall made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Millwall had 58% of the ball to Plymouth Argyle's 42%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 1.05 to 0.34.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Millwall had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Millwall and 1.00 for Plymouth Argyle.

What was the final score of Millwall vs Plymouth Argyle?

Millwall 1-0 Plymouth Argyle in the England - Championship on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Millwall vs Plymouth Argyle?

Before kick-off our model rated a Millwall win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Millwall 37%, draw 28%, Plymouth Argyle 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Millwall), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Millwall) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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