Cardiff City 1-4 Middlesbrough — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.69
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
49%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.97
Over 2.5
56%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.63
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
27%
3.32
6+ Goals
10%
12.0
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.32 — our 27% vs market 24.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
5.14
1/2
9%
25.5
1/X EV+ ✗
13%
14.0
X/1
10%
6.95
X/2
16%
4.5
X/X
7%
4.72
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
25%
2.8
2/X
6%
13.65
Value flag · 1/X at 14.0 — our 13% vs market 4.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
24%
+0.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.0pp
49%
Away Win
51%
-1.3pp
44%
Under 2.5
47%
-2.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
53%
+2.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
+0.3pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cardiff City EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 55%
-13% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -34%
0.78/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/1.29
-33% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -48%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
243 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 77%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.9
17.6 Crosses 19.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cardiff City
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Middlesbrough
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.78 xG 1.70
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 9
239 Passes 364
67% Pass Accuracy 76%
13 Box Touches 28
13 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
03.10.2023 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2-0 HT 0-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
11.02.2023 Cardiff City Cardiff City 1-3 HT 1-2 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
13.09.2022 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2-3 HT 0-3 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
27.04.2022 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2-0 HT 1-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
23.10.2021 Cardiff City Cardiff City 0-2 HT 0-1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
27.02.2021 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 1-1 HT 0-1 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cardiff City
1-4
AWAY Middlesbrough
1.63 xG 1.66
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 1
435 Passes 500
87% Pass Accuracy 88%
23 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 10
POST-MATCH Cardiff City vs Middlesbrough
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Middlesbrough swept aside Cardiff City 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Middlesbrough as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Cardiff City had 48% of the ball to Middlesbrough's 52%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 1.63 to 1.66.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Middlesbrough led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Cardiff City and 2.00 for Middlesbrough.

What was the final score of Cardiff City vs Middlesbrough?

Cardiff City 1-4 Middlesbrough in the England - Championship on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cardiff City vs Middlesbrough?

Before kick-off our model rated an Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Cardiff City 24%, draw 27%, Middlesbrough 49%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Middlesbrough), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Middlesbrough) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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