Deportes Tolima 3-1 Alianza Petrolera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 8 Feb 2025

📅08/02/2025 · 🕒04:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.53
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
18%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.62
Over 2.5
38%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.33
No
62%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
61%
-6.6pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.3pp
18%
Away Win
15%
+3.2pp
62%
Under 2.5
58%
+4.2pp
38%
Over 2.5
42%
-4.2pp
38%
BTTS Yes
39%
-0.6pp
62%
BTTS No
61%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportes Tolima EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 18%
+1% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -5%
1.34/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.32
+3% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +2%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
333 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 73%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.1
17.4 Crosses 13.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportes Tolima
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.80 xG 1.66
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
289 Passes 314
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 19
11 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.03.2024 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 0-2 HT 0-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
23.10.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 0-1 HT 0-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
17.08.2023 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 2-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOLK
27.07.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 2-0 HT 1-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOLK
07.05.2023 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 2-1 HT 2-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
13.10.2022 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 2-0 HT 1-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportes Tolima
3-1
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
1.60 xG 1.02
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
298 Passes 286
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 13
17 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Deportes Tolima vs Alianza Petrolera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportes Tolima saw off Alianza Petrolera 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Deportes Tolima as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Deportes Tolima had 50% of the ball to Alianza Petrolera's 50%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.60 to 1.02.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportes Tolima had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Deportes Tolima and 0.50 for Alianza Petrolera.

What was the final score of Deportes Tolima vs Alianza Petrolera?

Deportes Tolima 3-1 Alianza Petrolera in the Colombia - Primera on 08/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportes Tolima vs Alianza Petrolera?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportes Tolima win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Deportes Tolima 55%, draw 27%, Alianza Petrolera 18%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportes Tolima) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Deportes Tolima) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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