Monza vs Avellino Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Monza v Avellino — Team-Based Signals
Monza vs Avellino Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
Monza 2-1 Avellino — Actual Match Statistics
Monza nicked a narrow win over Avellino 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Monza as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Monza had 58% of the ball to Avellino's 42%, shots finished 33-3, expected goals 3.08 to 0.43 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Monza's control.
What was the final score of Monza vs Avellino?
Monza 2-1 Avellino in the Italy - Serie B on 08/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Monza vs Avellino?
Before kick-off our model rated a Monza win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Monza 63%, draw 23%, Avellino 14%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monza) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.