Derry City 3-0 Waterford FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 8 Mar 2024

📅08/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
25%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.78
Over 2.5
48%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.06
No
56%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.0
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
3.88
6+ Goals
10%
17.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.0 — our 30% vs market 27.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.96
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.25
X/1
13%
3.56
X/2
7%
11.7
X/X
12%
5.02
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
12%
10.1
2/X
6%
18.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
61%
-11.2pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.0pp
25%
Away Win
16%
+9.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.1pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derry City EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Waterford FC EU Bookmakers 19%
-6% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +7%
1.19/0.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/0.91
-15% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / +38%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
367 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 67%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
22.8 Crosses 8.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derry City
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Waterford FC
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 4
02.11.2021 Waterford FC Waterford FC 2-2 HT 2-1 Derry City Derry City İRL
02.07.2021 Derry City Derry City 2-0 HT 1-0 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
03.04.2021 Derry City Derry City 1-2 HT 1-1 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
02.10.2020 Derry City Derry City 2-0 HT 1-0 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
06.03.2020 Waterford FC Waterford FC 2-1 HT 1-1 Derry City Derry City İRL
30.08.2019 Waterford FC Waterford FC 1-1 HT 1-1 Derry City Derry City İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derry City
3-0
AWAY Waterford FC
2.37 xG 0.28
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 7
305 Passes 268
76% Pass Accuracy 74%
34 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Derry City vs Waterford FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derry City swept aside Waterford FC 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Derry City as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Derry City had 53% of the ball to Waterford FC's 47%, shots finished 12-6, expected goals 2.37 to 0.28.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Derry City and 1.17 for Waterford FC.

What was the final score of Derry City vs Waterford FC?

Derry City 3-0 Waterford FC in the Ireland - Premier League on 08/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derry City vs Waterford FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Derry City win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Derry City 50%, draw 25%, Waterford FC 25%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Derry City), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Derry City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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