St Patricks 1-0 Dundalk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 8 Mar 2024

📅08/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.86
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.71
Over 2.5
52%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.82
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
4.14
6+ Goals
10%
19.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.14 — our 25% vs market 19.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.56
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.45
X/1
8%
4.11
X/2
8%
7.85
X/X
12%
4.38
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
15%
6.35
2/X
7%
15.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
50%
-6.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.7pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
55%
-6.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
45%
+6.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.3pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St Patricks EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Dundalk EU Bookmakers 27%
-7% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -6%
1.33/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/0.95
-10% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -7%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
304 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 74%
17.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
14.7 Crosses 23.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St Patricks
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Dundalk
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.09 xG 0.96
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
238 Passes 316
67% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
22.09.2023 St Patricks St Patricks 3-1 HT 0-0 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
26.06.2023 Dundalk Dundalk 1-1 HT 0-1 St Patricks St Patricks İRL
26.05.2023 St Patricks St Patricks 2-1 HT 1-0 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
03.03.2023 Dundalk Dundalk 5-0 HT 2-0 St Patricks St Patricks İRL
07.10.2022 Dundalk Dundalk 1-2 HT 1-1 St Patricks St Patricks İRL
15.07.2022 St Patricks St Patricks 1-1 HT 1-0 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St Patricks
1-0
AWAY Dundalk
1.89 xG 0.86
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 1
1 Corners 2
192 Passes 288
63% Pass Accuracy 69%
21 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH St Patricks vs Dundalk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St Patricks edged past Dundalk 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had St Patricks as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, St Patricks had 43% of the ball to Dundalk's 57%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.89 to 0.86.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, St Patricks had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for St Patricks and 1.67 for Dundalk.

What was the final score of St Patricks vs Dundalk?

St Patricks 1-0 Dundalk in the Ireland - Premier League on 08/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St Patricks vs Dundalk?

Before kick-off our model rated a St Patricks win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split St Patricks 44%, draw 27%, Dundalk 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St Patricks), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (St Patricks) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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