South Melbourne 1-1 Heidelberg United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 8 Mar 2024

📅08/03/2024 · 🕒11:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.09
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
38%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.1
Over 2.5
54%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.82
No
45%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
12%
1/X
4%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
44%
-6.1pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.9pp
38%
Away Win
29%
+9.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.8pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Heidelberg United EU Bookmakers 32%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +1%
1.68/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.65
-9% / +78% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
348 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
14.7 Crosses 16.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME South Melbourne
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Heidelberg United
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 6
196 Passes 206
62% Pass Accuracy 64%
15 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
16.08.2023 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United 2-1 HT 0-1 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
17.03.2023 South Melbourne South Melbourne 0-2 HT 0-1 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United AVNPL
22.05.2022 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United 2-1 HT 1-1 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
28.02.2021 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United 0-1 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
29.03.2015 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United 1-1 HT 0-1 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
22.06.2014 South Melbourne South Melbourne 3-0 HT 3-0 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United AVNPL
POST-MATCH South Melbourne vs Heidelberg United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

South Melbourne and Heidelberg United couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 24% / 38% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Heidelberg United led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for South Melbourne and 1.17 for Heidelberg United.

What was the final score of South Melbourne vs Heidelberg United?

South Melbourne 1-1 Heidelberg United in the Australia - National Premier League on 08/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for South Melbourne vs Heidelberg United?

Before kick-off our model rated a South Melbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split South Melbourne 38%, draw 24%, Heidelberg United 38%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/24/38) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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