NK Varazdin 2-2 Istra 1961 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 8 Mar 2024

NK Varazdin
2-2 HT 2-1
Istra 1961
📅08/03/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Croatia - 1. HNL – 2023/2024

NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.12
Draw
25%
2.94
Away
28%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
73%
1.48
Over 2.5
27%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
27%
2.16
No
73%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
46%
2.17
2-3 Goals
36%
1.81
4-5 Goals
12%
5.79
6+ Goals
6%
34.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.17 — our 46% vs market 39.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
16%
2/1
4%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
43%
+3.9pp
25%
Draw
30%
-4.7pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+0.7pp
73%
Under 2.5
64%
+9.5pp
27%
Over 2.5
36%
-9.5pp
27%
BTTS Yes
42%
-15.5pp
73%
BTTS No
58%
+15.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

NK Varazdin v Istra 1961 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Istra 1961 EU Bookmakers 31%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -11%
1.11/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.18
-34% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +0%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
296 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 72%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
21.7 Crosses 15.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3

NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961 Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NK Varazdin
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Istra 1961
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.94 xG 0.83
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
339 Passes 326
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.01.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-3 HT 0-2 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 ARK
05.12.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 3-2 HT 1-1 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIRK
01.12.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 2-0 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
17.09.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-0 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
16.04.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-0 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
03.02.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 2-1 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR

NK Varazdin 2-2 Istra 1961 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NK Varazdin
2-2
AWAY Istra 1961
0.95 xG 1.46
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
292 Passes 273
74% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NK Varazdin and Istra 1961 shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was NK Varazdin at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (73%), no to both teams scoring (73%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, NK Varazdin had 52% of the ball to Istra 1961's 48%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 0.95 to 1.46.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Istra 1961 led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for NK Varazdin and 1.50 for Istra 1961.

What was the final score of NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961?

NK Varazdin 2-2 Istra 1961 in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 08/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961?

Before kick-off our model rated a NK Varazdin win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split NK Varazdin 47%, draw 25%, Istra 1961 28%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (NK Varazdin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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