Estrela 3-1 Casa Pia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 8 Mar 2024

📅08/03/2024 · 🕒23:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.27
Draw
28%
2.88
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.52
Over 2.5
43%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.03
No
56%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.29
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
5.33
6+ Goals
10%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.5
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.75
X/1
13%
4.81
X/2
12%
6.09
X/X
15%
3.55
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
13%
4.88
2/X
8%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
40%
+0.4pp
28%
Draw
31%
-2.5pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+2.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
45%
-0.7pp
56%
BTTS No
55%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estrela EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 33%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -12%
0.90/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.22
-2% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
300 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 77%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
18.0 Crosses 16.8
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estrela
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Casa Pia
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.88 xG 1.46
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
205 Passes 393
71% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 5
13 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 1
08.10.2023 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-1 HT 0-0 Estrela Estrela POR
23.04.2022 Casa Pia Casa Pia 3-0 HT 2-0 Estrela Estrela POR2
13.12.2021 Estrela Estrela 1-0 HT 1-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estrela
3-1
AWAY Casa Pia
2.84 xG 0.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
348 Passes 316
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
34 Box Touches 11
23 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Estrela vs Casa Pia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estrela got the better of Casa Pia 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 31% — and on the day Estrela made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Estrela had 52% of the ball to Casa Pia's 48%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 2.84 to 0.50.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Estrela had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Estrela and 1.00 for Casa Pia.

What was the final score of Estrela vs Casa Pia?

Estrela 3-1 Casa Pia in the Portugal - Premier League on 08/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estrela vs Casa Pia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Estrela win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Estrela 40%, draw 28%, Casa Pia 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Estrela) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Estrela) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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