Derby County 1-2 Lincoln City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 8 Aug 2026

Derby County
1-2 HT 1-2
Lincoln City
📅08/08/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - League Cup – 2026/2027

Derby County vs Lincoln City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
28%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.97
Over 2.5
56%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.66
No
42%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.57
2-3 Goals
36%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
3.22
6+ Goals
12%
11.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.22 — our 28% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.76
1/2
8%
33.5
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
10%
4.88
X/2
10%
7.38
X/X
10%
4.97
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
23.8
2/2
10%
5.25
2/X
9%
13.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.8 — our 10% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
-0.8pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
28%
Away Win
28%
+0.4pp
44%
Under 2.5
47%
-2.6pp
56%
Over 2.5
53%
+2.6pp
58%
BTTS Yes
56%
+2.2pp
42%
BTTS No
44%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Derby County v Lincoln City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derby County EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Lincoln City EU Bookmakers 31%
+36% / +36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +32% / +32%
4.52/0.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.19/1.10
+150% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +68% / +31%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
442 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 242 · 71%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
– Crosses 12.9
– Yellow Cards 1.3

Derby County vs Lincoln City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derby County
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Lincoln City
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.37 xG 0.95
65% Ball Possession 35%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
476 Passes 201
81% Pass Accuracy 63%
23 Box Touches 12
30 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.01.2024 Lincoln City Lincoln City 0-0 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İN1
21.12.2023 Derby County Derby County 3-1 HT 1-1 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN1
19.09.2023 Derby County Derby County 2-0 HT 0-0 Lincoln City Lincoln City İNTK
14.02.2023 Derby County Derby County 1-1 HT 0-1 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN1
13.09.2022 Lincoln City Lincoln City 2-0 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İN1
12.08.2008 Derby County Derby County 1-1 HT 0-0 Lincoln City Lincoln City İNLK

Derby County 1-2 Lincoln City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derby County
1-2
AWAY Lincoln City
0.37 xG 1.27
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
460 Passes 145
12 Box Touches 24
26 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Derby County vs Lincoln City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lincoln City squeezed past Derby County 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Derby County at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 0.37 to 1.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derby County had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Derby County and 0.83 for Lincoln City.

What was the final score of Derby County vs Lincoln City?

Derby County 1-2 Lincoln City in the England - League Cup on 08/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County vs Lincoln City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Derby County 46%, draw 26%, Lincoln City 28%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Derby County) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Derby County) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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