Maritimo 1-0 Casa Pia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 8 Aug 2026

📅08/08/2026 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.92
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.59
Over 2.5
44%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.03
No
52%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.4
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
4.71
6+ Goals
9%
27.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.75
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.4
X/1
15%
4.34
X/2
12%
7.63
X/X
15%
3.99
2/1
7%
29.5
2/2
12%
6.5
2/X
6%
15.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-3.4pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.6pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-3.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+3.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
45%
+2.6pp
52%
BTTS No
55%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maritimo EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 28%
+1% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -5%
1.69/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.39
-2% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
320 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 79%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
27.1 Crosses 16.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Maritimo
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Casa Pia
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.73 xG 2.23
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 4
408 Passes 240
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
26 Box Touches 16
29 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.03.2023 Casa Pia Casa Pia 2-0 HT 1-0 Maritimo Maritimo POR
03.10.2022 Maritimo Maritimo 1-2 HT 1-1 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maritimo
1-0
AWAY Casa Pia
1.28 xG 0.64
16 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
239 Passes 416
24 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Maritimo vs Casa Pia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maritimo nicked a narrow win over Casa Pia 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Maritimo as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 1.28 to 0.64.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Casa Pia led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Maritimo and 2.00 for Casa Pia.

What was the final score of Maritimo vs Casa Pia?

Maritimo 1-0 Casa Pia in the Portugal - Premier League on 08/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maritimo vs Casa Pia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Maritimo win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Maritimo 45%, draw 26%, Casa Pia 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Maritimo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Maritimo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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