Eldense 1-0 Almeria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 8 Sep 2024

📅08/09/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.8
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
39%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.7
No
59%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.3
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.58
6+ Goals
6%
14.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.3 — our 32% vs market 24.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.37
1/2
7%
27.0
1/X
7%
12.95
X/1
13%
6.26
X/2
11%
5.06
X/X
11%
4.49
2/1
5%
32.0
2/2
21%
3.24
2/X
9%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+1.2pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.7pp
39%
Away Win
41%
-1.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
55%
-13.9pp
59%
BTTS No
45%
+13.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Eldense EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Almeria EU Bookmakers 45%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
0.97/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.31
-5% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +51% / +1%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
258 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 78%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
19.3 Crosses 13.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Eldense
1-0
AWAY Almeria
0.83 xG 0.63
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 4
201 Passes 270
73% Pass Accuracy 79%
12 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Eldense vs Almeria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Eldense squeezed past Almeria 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 28% / 39% — and on the day Eldense made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, Eldense had 45% of the ball to Almeria's 55%, shots finished 7-10, expected goals 0.83 to 0.63.

What was the final score of Eldense vs Almeria?

Eldense 1-0 Almeria in the Spain - 2nd Division on 08/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Eldense vs Almeria?

Before kick-off our model rated an Almeria win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Eldense 33%, draw 28%, Almeria 39%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Almeria) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Almeria) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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