Bergantinos 4-1 Real Aviles — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 8 Sep 2024

📅08/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.94
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
37%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
54%
1.48
Over
46%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.13
No
52%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2-3
39%
4-5
21%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
35%
Home Win
31%
+4.3pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.7pp
37%
Away Win
39%
-2.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
64%
-10.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
36%
+10.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
43%
+4.9pp
52%
BTTS No
57%
-4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bergantinos The Market 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Aviles The Market 43%
-3% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +3%
1.29/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/0.74
+22% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +32%
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
287 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bergantinos
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Real Aviles
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.02.2023 Real Aviles Real Aviles 1-0 HT 0-0 Bergantinos Bergantinos İS4
18.09.2022 Bergantinos Bergantinos 3-1 HT 1-0 Real Aviles Real Aviles İS4
08.05.2022 Bergantinos Bergantinos 1-3 HT 0-1 Real Aviles Real Aviles İS4
18.12.2021 Real Aviles Real Aviles 2-2 HT 1-0 Bergantinos Bergantinos İS4
POST-MATCH Bergantinos vs Real Aviles
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bergantinos ran out comfortable winners over Real Aviles 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (35% / 28% / 37%) promised a tight game; Bergantinos found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Real Aviles led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Bergantinos and 1.75 for Real Aviles.

What was the final score of Bergantinos vs Real Aviles?

Bergantinos 4-1 Real Aviles in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 08/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bergantinos vs Real Aviles?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Aviles win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Bergantinos 35%, draw 28%, Real Aviles 37%. The final score 4-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Real Aviles) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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