Telstar 4-0 MVV Maastricht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 8 Sep 2024

📅08/09/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.43
Over 2.5
54%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.53
No
46%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.33
2-3 Goals
42%
1.99
4-5 Goals
26%
2.69
6+ Goals
11%
6.67
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.08
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.7
X/1
15%
4.32
X/2
12%
10.05
X/X
11%
6.15
2/1
8%
20.25
2/2
10%
6.67
2/X
5%
14.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
56%
-10.7pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.4pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+7.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
38%
+8.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
62%
-8.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
61%
-7.3pp
46%
BTTS No
39%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Telstar EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 24%
-3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +26%
1.46/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.70
-21% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
355 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 75%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
23.3 Crosses 15.4
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Telstar
3W-0D-3L
AWAY MVV Maastricht
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.75 xG 1.88
52% Ball Possession 48%
20 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 3
330 Passes 314
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
31 Box Touches 22
23 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
02.02.2024 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 6-1 HT 3-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
14.10.2023 Telstar Telstar 2-1 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
12.05.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 2-1 HT 2-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
24.01.2023 Telstar Telstar 5-3 HT 3-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
14.01.2022 Telstar Telstar 2-1 HT 2-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
05.09.2021 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 3-0 HT 3-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Telstar
4-0
AWAY MVV Maastricht
0.76 xG 0.59
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 1
298 Passes 311
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Telstar vs MVV Maastricht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Telstar swept aside MVV Maastricht 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Telstar as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Telstar had 49% of the ball to MVV Maastricht's 51%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 0.76 to 0.59.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Telstar and 2.67 for MVV Maastricht.

What was the final score of Telstar vs MVV Maastricht?

Telstar 4-0 MVV Maastricht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 08/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Telstar vs MVV Maastricht?

Before kick-off our model rated a Telstar win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Telstar 46%, draw 26%, MVV Maastricht 28%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Telstar), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Telstar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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