Chelsea (K) 3-2 Real Madrid (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League - Women's, 8 Oct 2024

Chelsea (K)
3-2 HT 2-1
Real Madrid (K)
📅08/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Champions League - Women's – 2024/2025

Chelsea (K) vs Real Madrid (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.47
Draw
26%
4.34
Away
27%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
51%
2.59
Over
49%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1
22%
2-3
45%
4-5
25%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 51% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
64%
-16.3pp
26%
Draw
20%
+5.7pp
27%
Away Win
16%
+10.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
35%
+15.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
65%
-15.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.7pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chelsea (K) v Real Madrid (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelsea (K) EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid (K) EU Bookmakers 20%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
1.17/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/1.50
+0% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -53% / -4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
346 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 78%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
27.0 Crosses 12.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.5

Chelsea (K) vs Real Madrid (K) Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelsea (K)
2W-2D-0L
AWAY Real Madrid (K)
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.94 xG 0.98
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
407 Passes 282
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
33 Box Touches 12
22 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
24.01.2024 Chelsea (K) Chelsea (K) 2-1 HT 0-0 Real Madrid (K) Real Madrid (K) ŞMP-K
15.11.2023 Real Madrid (K) Real Madrid (K) 2-2 HT 1-1 Chelsea (K) Chelsea (K) ŞMP-K
08.12.2022 Real Madrid (K) Real Madrid (K) 1-1 HT 1-0 Chelsea (K) Chelsea (K) ŞMP-K
23.11.2022 Chelsea (K) Chelsea (K) 2-0 HT 0-0 Real Madrid (K) Real Madrid (K) ŞMP-K

Chelsea (K) 3-2 Real Madrid (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelsea (K)
3-2
AWAY Real Madrid (K)
1.39 xG 1.60
57% Ball Possession 43%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
491 Passes 359
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Chelsea (K) vs Real Madrid (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea (K) squeezed past Real Madrid (K) 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Chelsea (K) as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Chelsea (K) had 57% of the ball to Real Madrid (K)'s 43%, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 1.39 to 1.60.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Chelsea (K) had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Chelsea (K) and 1.00 for Real Madrid (K).

What was the final score of Chelsea (K) vs Real Madrid (K)?

Chelsea (K) 3-2 Real Madrid (K) in the Champions League - Women's on 08/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelsea (K) vs Real Madrid (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelsea (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Chelsea (K) 47%, draw 26%, Real Madrid (K) 27%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelsea (K)), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chelsea (K)) ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ŞMP-K More Champions League - Women's
8 Oct 2024
19:45 Roma (K) vs Wolfsburg (K) Analysis →
22:00 Celtic (K) vs Twente (K) Analysis →