Chelsea (K) 2-1 Real Madrid (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League - Women's, 24 Jan 2024

Chelsea (K)
2-1 HT 0-0
Real Madrid (K)
📅24/01/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Champions League - Women's – 2023/2024

Chelsea (K) vs Real Madrid (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.25
Draw
20%
5.71
Away
21%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
2.18
Over
53%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.9
No Pick
62%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1
24%
2-3
37%
4-5
27%
6+
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
13%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
4%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS No — 62% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
76%
-16.7pp
20%
Draw
15%
+5.3pp
21%
Away Win
10%
+11.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
42%
+4.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
58%
-4.5pp
38%
BTTS Yes
49%
-10.2pp
62%
BTTS No
51%
+10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chelsea (K) v Real Madrid (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelsea (K) EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid (K) EU Bookmakers 12%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
2.54/0.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.77
+3% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +45% / +3%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
454 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 71%
45.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.7
27.0 Crosses 9.4
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.4

Chelsea (K) vs Real Madrid (K) Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelsea (K)
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Real Madrid (K)
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.81 xG 0.90
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
377 Passes 274
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
30 Box Touches 12
22 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
15.11.2023 Real Madrid (K) Real Madrid (K) 2-2 HT 1-1 Chelsea (K) Chelsea (K) ŞMP-K
08.12.2022 Real Madrid (K) Real Madrid (K) 1-1 HT 1-0 Chelsea (K) Chelsea (K) ŞMP-K
23.11.2022 Chelsea (K) Chelsea (K) 2-0 HT 0-0 Real Madrid (K) Real Madrid (K) ŞMP-K

Chelsea (K) 2-1 Real Madrid (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelsea (K)
2-1
AWAY Real Madrid (K)
2.32 xG 1.22
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 12
10 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 4
497 Passes 305
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
41 Box Touches 12
23 Crosses 7
POST-MATCH Chelsea (K) vs Real Madrid (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea (K) nicked a narrow win over Real Madrid (K) 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Chelsea (K) as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Chelsea (K) had 60% of the ball to Real Madrid (K)'s 40%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 2.32 to 1.22.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Chelsea (K) had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Chelsea (K) and 1.00 for Real Madrid (K).

What was the final score of Chelsea (K) vs Real Madrid (K)?

Chelsea (K) 2-1 Real Madrid (K) in the Champions League - Women's on 24/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelsea (K) vs Real Madrid (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelsea (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Chelsea (K) 59%, draw 20%, Real Madrid (K) 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelsea (K)), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chelsea (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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