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24/01/2024
·
23:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
3-0
2nd Score
2-1
PSG (K) vs Ajax (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1
25%
2-3
38%
4-5
26%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
11%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
11%
2/2
17%
2/X
4%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 58% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH
Home Win
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
71%
19%
Draw
18%
28%
Away Win
11%
42%
Under 2.5
40%
58%
Over 2.5
60%
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
54%
BTTS No
53%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PSG (K) v Ajax (K) — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
PSG (K)
EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY
Ajax (K)
EU Bookmakers 14%
+12% /
+12%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+17% /
+17%
3.72/0.52
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
0.66/1.75
+10%
/
-8%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+20%
/
+41%
64%
Ball Possession
36%
19
Total Shots
8
8
Shots on Target
4
8
Corners
4
548 · 86%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
207 · 71%
42.3
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
15.9
22.9
Crosses
16.4
0.8
Yellow Cards
2.2
PSG (K) vs Ajax (K) Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
PSG (K)
0W-0D-1L
AWAY
Ajax (K)
0.00
Avg Goals (FT)
2.00
0.92
xG
1.79
57%
Ball Possession
43%
22
Total Shots
8
5
Shots on Target
2
7
Corners
5
385
Passes
276
85%
Pass Accuracy
77%
39
Box Touches
19
36
Crosses
10
0
Yellow Cards
3
The Meetings
15.11.2023
Ajax (K)
_small.png)
2-0
HT 2-0
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PSG (K)
ŞMP-K
2-0
HT 2-0
PSG (K)
ŞMP-K
PSG (K) 3-1 Ajax (K) — Actual Match Statistics
RESULT
Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME
PSG (K)
3-1
AWAY
Ajax (K)
1.89
xG
0.55
47%
Ball Possession
53%
11
Total Shots
12
5
Shots on Target
2
3
Corners
7
283
Passes
333
78%
Pass Accuracy
82%
26
Box Touches
18
12
Crosses
15
2
Yellow Cards
3
POST-MATCH
PSG (K) vs Ajax (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
PSG (K) saw off Ajax (K) 3-1.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had PSG (K) as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, PSG (K) had 47% of the ball to Ajax (K)'s 53%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.89 to 0.55.
What was the final score of PSG (K) vs Ajax (K)?
PSG (K) 3-1 Ajax (K) in the Champions League - Women's on 24/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for PSG (K) vs Ajax (K)?
Before kick-off our model rated a PSG (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split PSG (K) 53%, draw 19%, Ajax (K) 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSG (K)), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.
✓ Match Result (PSG (K))
✓ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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ŞMP-K
More Champions League - Women's
24 Jan 2024