Derby County U21 4-3 Chelsea U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League Cup, 8 Nov 2024

📅08/11/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
5.91
Draw
22%
5.15
Away
58%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
3.68
Over 2.5
61%
1.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.49
No
41%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
11%
1/X
6%
X/1
4%
X/2
18%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
29%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
14%
+6.0pp
22%
Draw
16%
+6.2pp
58%
Away Win
70%
-12.1pp
39%
Under 2.5
24%
+15.9pp
61%
Over 2.5
76%
-15.9pp
59%
BTTS Yes
63%
-3.6pp
41%
BTTS No
37%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derby County U21 EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Chelsea U21 EU Bookmakers 75%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +5%
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
234 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 393 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 25.0
Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derby County U21
4-3
AWAY Chelsea U21
34% Ball Possession 66%
13 Total Shots 19
9 Shots on Target 11
1 Corners 7
234 Passes 505
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
12 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Derby County U21 vs Chelsea U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derby County U21 nicked a narrow win over Chelsea U21 4-3. It was 1-3 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Chelsea U21 at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Derby County U21 had 34% of the ball to Chelsea U21's 66%, shots finished 13-19.

What was the final score of Derby County U21 vs Chelsea U21?

Derby County U21 4-3 Chelsea U21 in the England - Premier League Cup on 08/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County U21 vs Chelsea U21?

Before kick-off our model rated an Chelsea U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Derby County U21 20%, draw 22%, Chelsea U21 58%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Chelsea U21) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chelsea U21) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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