Aberystwyth Town 3-1 Newtown — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 8 Nov 2024

Aberystwyth Town
3-1 HT 2-0
Newtown
📅08/11/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Wales - Premier League – 2024/2025

Aberystwyth Town vs Newtown Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.48
Draw
28%
3.8
Away
49%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.0
Over 2.5
46%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.76
No
55%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.71
2-3 Goals
44%
1.82
4-5 Goals
18%
3.27
6+ Goals
10%
11.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.71 — our 28% vs market 21.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
18%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
24%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
20%
+3.0pp
28%
Draw
23%
+4.8pp
49%
Away Win
57%
-7.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
46%
+7.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
54%
-7.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.0pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aberystwyth Town v Newtown — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aberystwyth Town EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Newtown EU Bookmakers 61%
-6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.06/1.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.24/1.83
+12% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -50%
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
231 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
4.0 Yellow Cards 1.7

Aberystwyth Town vs Newtown Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aberystwyth Town
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Newtown
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
09.08.2024 Newtown Newtown 4-1 HT 0-1 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town GAL
14.11.2023 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Newtown Newtown GAL
26.08.2023 Newtown Newtown 0-0 HT 0-0 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town GAL
30.12.2022 Newtown Newtown 6-1 HT 1-0 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town GAL
26.12.2022 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 1-2 HT 1-2 Newtown Newtown GAL
12.11.2022 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 1-3 HT 1-1 Newtown Newtown GALWK

Aberystwyth Town 3-1 Newtown — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aberystwyth Town
3-1
AWAY Newtown
38% Ball Possession 62%
13 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 9
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Aberystwyth Town vs Newtown
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aberystwyth Town saw off Newtown 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Newtown at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Aberystwyth Town had 38% of the ball to Newtown's 62%, shots finished 13-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newtown led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Aberystwyth Town and 2.67 for Newtown.

What was the final score of Aberystwyth Town vs Newtown?

Aberystwyth Town 3-1 Newtown in the Wales - Premier League on 08/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aberystwyth Town vs Newtown?

Before kick-off our model rated an Newtown win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Aberystwyth Town 23%, draw 28%, Newtown 49%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Newtown) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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