Utrecht 1-0 Heracles — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 8 Nov 2024

Utrecht
1-0 HT 0-0
Heracles
📅08/11/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

Utrecht vs Heracles Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.49
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
21%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.07
Over 2.5 OUR CALL
56%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.0
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
26%
3.11
6+ Goals
12%
10.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.85
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.85
X/1
18%
3.7
X/2
6%
12.2
X/X
12%
6.04
2/1
8%
21.85
2/2
7%
9.52
2/X
7%
17.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Over 2.5 — 56% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
63%
-8.0pp
25%
Draw
21%
+3.7pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+4.3pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
-0.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
+0.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.9pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Utrecht v Heracles — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Utrecht EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Heracles EU Bookmakers 20%
-3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +17%
1.97/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/2.10
-15% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -9%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
390 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 75%
30.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
26.2 Crosses 15.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1

Utrecht vs Heracles Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Utrecht
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Heracles
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.90 xG 0.99
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
370 Passes 335
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
28 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.02.2024 Utrecht Utrecht 1-0 HT 0-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
16.09.2023 Heracles Heracles 1-3 HT 0-2 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
11.02.2022 Heracles Heracles 1-0 HT 0-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
28.11.2021 Utrecht Utrecht 1-0 HT 0-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
16.01.2021 Utrecht Utrecht 2-0 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
01.11.2020 Heracles Heracles 4-1 HT 2-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL

Utrecht 1-0 Heracles — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Utrecht
1-0
AWAY Heracles
2.73 xG 0.87
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 8
358 Passes 275
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 29
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Utrecht vs Heracles
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Utrecht nicked a narrow win over Heracles 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Utrecht as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Utrecht had 55% of the ball to Heracles's 45%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 2.73 to 0.87 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Utrecht's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Utrecht had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Utrecht and 1.00 for Heracles.

What was the final score of Utrecht vs Heracles?

Utrecht 1-0 Heracles in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 08/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Utrecht vs Heracles?

Before kick-off our model rated a Utrecht win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Utrecht 55%, draw 25%, Heracles 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Utrecht) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Utrecht) ✗ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →