Piast Gliwice 2-3 Motor Lublin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 8 Nov 2024

📅08/11/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.88
No
56%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.92
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
4.0
6+ Goals
9%
18.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.92 — our 32% vs market 28.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.54
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.1
X/1
10%
4.16
X/2
8%
8.01
X/X
13%
4.41
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
11%
6.38
2/X
7%
14.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
50%
-2.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.5pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+2.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.5pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Piast Gliwice EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 27%
+4% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -46% / -46%
1.34/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.11/1.42
-7% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +41%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
348 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 72%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.0
19.3 Crosses 22.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Piast Gliwice
2-3
AWAY Motor Lublin
1.33 xG 1.73
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
410 Passes 433
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 12
28 Crosses 6
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motor Lublin edged past Piast Gliwice 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Piast Gliwice at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Piast Gliwice had 50% of the ball to Motor Lublin's 50%, shots finished 15-6, expected goals 1.33 to 1.73.

What was the final score of Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin?

Piast Gliwice 2-3 Motor Lublin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 08/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Piast Gliwice win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Piast Gliwice 47%, draw 26%, Motor Lublin 27%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Piast Gliwice) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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