Borussia Dortmund 3-3 Standard Liege — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 9 Jan 2024

📅09/01/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.25
Draw
23%
6.26
Away
20%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
4.67
Over 2.5
63%
1.17
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.55
No
45%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
10.6
2-3 Goals
36%
2.61
4-5 Goals
29%
2.29
6+ Goals
17%
3.26
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1.35
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
23.85
X/1
9%
3.84
X/2
7%
23.85
X/X
9%
12.05
2/1
8%
17.4
2/2
8%
14.75
2/X EV+ ✗
7%
22.6
Value flag · 2/X at 22.6 — our 7% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
76%
-18.3pp
23%
Draw
13%
+9.5pp
20%
Away Win
11%
+8.9pp
37%
Under 2.5
18%
+19.0pp
63%
Over 2.5
82%
-19.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.9pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Standard Liege EU Bookmakers 14%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +44% / +44%
1.93/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.28/1.93
+17% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / +150%
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
487 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 78%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.0
14.2 Crosses 15.0
0.4 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Standard Liege
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
437 Passes 440
87% Pass Accuracy 85%
36 Box Touches 9
11 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 1
12.01.2017 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 3-0 HT 1-0 Standard Liege Standard Liege HAZ
11.01.2014 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-0 HT 1-0 Standard Liege Standard Liege HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund
3-3
AWAY Standard Liege
3.94 xG 2.30
69% Ball Possession 31%
14 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 2
695 Passes 280
90% Pass Accuracy 82%
39 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund vs Standard Liege
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund and Standard Liege shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 1-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Borussia Dortmund carried 58% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund had 69% of the ball to Standard Liege's 31%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 3.94 to 2.30.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 0.00 for Standard Liege.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund vs Standard Liege?

Borussia Dortmund 3-3 Standard Liege in the Friendlies on 09/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund vs Standard Liege?

Before kick-off our model rated a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund 58%, draw 23%, Standard Liege 20%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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