09/01/2024
·
13:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
1-2
Lugano vs Genk Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
Half Time / Full Time
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
30%
25%
Draw
25%
37%
Away Win
45%
48%
Under 2.5
36%
52%
Over 2.5
64%
56%
BTTS Yes
64%
44%
BTTS No
36%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Lugano v Genk — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Lugano
EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY
Genk
EU Bookmakers 49%
+33% /
+33%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-58% /
-58%
1.39/0.78
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
0.66/2.00
+7%
/
+75%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-57%
/
-39%
51%
Ball Possession
49%
12
Total Shots
12
5
Shots on Target
5
5
Corners
6
365 · 82%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
404 · 81%
12.0
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
7.0
Crosses
–
1.0
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Lugano vs Genk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Genk swept aside Lugano 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.
Our pre-match split (37% / 25% / 37%) promised a tight game; Genk found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Lugano vs Genk?
Lugano 0-4 Genk in the Friendlies on 09/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Lugano vs Genk?
Before kick-off our model rated a Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Lugano 37%, draw 25%, Genk 37%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.
◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/25/37)
✓ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
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HAZ
More Friendlies
9 Jan 2024