Estoril 0-4 Porto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 9 Jan 2024

Estoril
0-4 HT 0-2
Porto
📅09/01/2024 · 🕒23:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Portugal - Cup – 2023/2024

Estoril vs Porto Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
4.65
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
54%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.18
Over 2.5
53%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.24
2-3 Goals
39%
1.86
4-5 Goals
27%
2.98
6+ Goals
10%
9.08
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
8.09
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
22.15
1/X
8%
16.4
X/1
8%
10.55
X/2
13%
3.79
X/X
9%
5.64
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
34%
1.99
2/X
9%
15.75
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.15 — our 7% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
18%
+2.2pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.1pp
54%
Away Win
60%
-5.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.2pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Estoril v Porto — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estoril EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Porto EU Bookmakers 64%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +10%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +56%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
294 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 397 · 82%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.5
– Crosses 14.3
– Yellow Cards 3.3

Estoril vs Porto Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estoril
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Porto
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.88 xG 2.19
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 9
212 Passes 451
73% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Box Touches 44
11 Crosses 25
5 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
06.12.2023 Estoril Estoril 3-1 HT 1-1 Porto Porto PORLC
03.11.2023 Porto Porto 0-1 HT 0-0 Estoril Estoril POR
10.03.2023 Porto Porto 3-2 HT 2-1 Estoril Estoril POR
17.09.2022 Estoril Estoril 1-1 HT 1-0 Porto Porto POR
14.05.2022 Porto Porto 2-0 HT 0-0 Estoril Estoril POR
08.01.2022 Estoril Estoril 2-3 HT 2-0 Porto Porto POR

Estoril 0-4 Porto — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estoril
0-4
AWAY Porto
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 11
4 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Estoril vs Porto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto ran out comfortable winners over Estoril 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Porto as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Estoril had 39% of the ball to Porto's 61%, shots finished 11-18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Estoril and 1.67 for Porto.

What was the final score of Estoril vs Porto?

Estoril 0-4 Porto in the Portugal - Cup on 09/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estoril vs Porto?

Before kick-off our model rated an Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Estoril 20%, draw 25%, Porto 54%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Porto) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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