Fulham vs Watford Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Fulham v Watford — Team-Based Signals
Fulham vs Watford Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
4-1
HT 1-1
Fulham
İNP
1-1
HT 0-1
Watford
İNP
1-0
HT 1-0
Fulham
İNCL
0-5
HT 0-3
Watford
İNCL
0-0
HT 0-0
Watford
İNP
3-3
HT 1-0
Fulham
İNP
Fulham 4-1 Watford — Actual Match Statistics
Fulham cruised past Watford 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fulham as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.
On the day, Fulham had 72% of the ball to Watford's 28%, shots finished 27-5, expected goals 3.06 to 0.22.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Watford led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Fulham and 2.33 for Watford.
What was the final score of Fulham vs Watford?
Fulham 4-1 Watford in the England - FA Cup on 09/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Fulham vs Watford?
Before kick-off our model rated a Fulham win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Fulham 56%, draw 23%, Watford 21%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fulham), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.