Monarcas Morelia 3-1 Tlaxcala — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 9 Feb 2024

📅09/02/2024 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.82
Over 2.5
40%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
1.96
No
63%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
20%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
60%
-6.4pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.6pp
23%
Away Win
17%
+5.8pp
60%
Under 2.5
51%
+8.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
49%
-8.5pp
37%
BTTS Yes
47%
-10.0pp
63%
BTTS No
53%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monarcas Morelia EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Tlaxcala EU Bookmakers 20%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +6%
1.74/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.77
-8% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -7%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
522 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monarcas Morelia
3W-1D-1L
AWAY Tlaxcala
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 12
10 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
0 Yellow Cards 2
21.09.2023 Tlaxcala 2-3 HT 0-2 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
07.01.2023 Tlaxcala 0-0 HT 0-0 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
06.07.2022 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 2-0 HT 1-0 Tlaxcala MEK2
10.01.2022 Tlaxcala 0-4 HT 0-2 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
10.11.2021 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 1-3 HT 0-1 Tlaxcala MEK2
POST-MATCH Monarcas Morelia vs Tlaxcala
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monarcas Morelia saw off Tlaxcala 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Monarcas Morelia as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Monarcas Morelia had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Monarcas Morelia and 1.00 for Tlaxcala.

What was the final score of Monarcas Morelia vs Tlaxcala?

Monarcas Morelia 3-1 Tlaxcala in the Mexico - Primera A on 09/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monarcas Morelia vs Tlaxcala?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monarcas Morelia win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Monarcas Morelia 54%, draw 24%, Tlaxcala 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monarcas Morelia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Monarcas Morelia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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