Stal Mielec 2-1 Puszcza Niepolomice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 9 Feb 2024

📅09/02/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.67
Over 2.5
48%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.69
2-3 Goals
43%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
4.25
6+ Goals
9%
21.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.1
1/2
9%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.55
X/1
14%
4.58
X/2
8%
6.3
X/X
10%
4.08
2/1
9%
29.0
2/2
16%
4.86
2/X
8%
13.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
43%
-0.5pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.1pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+3.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-4.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+4.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.2pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stal Mielec EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Puszcza Niepolomice EU Bookmakers 32%
+32% / +32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -38% / -38%
1.97/0.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/4.00
+39% / +99% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -67%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
297 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 72%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.0 Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stal Mielec
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Puszcza Niepolomice
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
0.41 xG 0.37
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
450 Passes 156
84% Pass Accuracy 65%
15 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 4
07.08.2023 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 1-0 HT 0-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
05.06.2020 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 0-0 HT 0-0 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice POL1
01.09.2019 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 0-1 HT 0-1 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL1
29.06.2019 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 0-1 HT 0-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec HAZ
29.11.2015 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 0-0 HT 0-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL2
09.08.2015 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 2-1 HT 0-0 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice POL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stal Mielec
2-1
AWAY Puszcza Niepolomice
1.49 xG 0.65
73% Ball Possession 27%
17 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
539 Passes 139
85% Pass Accuracy 61%
23 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Stal Mielec vs Puszcza Niepolomice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stal Mielec edged past Puszcza Niepolomice 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Stal Mielec as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Stal Mielec had 73% of the ball to Puszcza Niepolomice's 27%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 1.49 to 0.65.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stal Mielec had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Stal Mielec and 0.33 for Puszcza Niepolomice.

What was the final score of Stal Mielec vs Puszcza Niepolomice?

Stal Mielec 2-1 Puszcza Niepolomice in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 09/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stal Mielec vs Puszcza Niepolomice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stal Mielec win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Stal Mielec 43%, draw 25%, Puszcza Niepolomice 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stal Mielec) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Stal Mielec) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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