Guangzhou Evergrande 0-1 Foshan Nanshi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
34%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.78
Over 2.5
42%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.81
No
61%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
3.05
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.82
6+ Goals
6%
16.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.05 — our 33% vs market 27.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
9%
X/2
11%
X/X
16%
2/1
10%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
46%
-7.1pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.3pp
34%
Away Win
27%
+6.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.1pp
39%
BTTS Yes
51%
-12.2pp
61%
BTTS No
49%
+12.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guangzhou Evergrande EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Foshan Nanshi EU Bookmakers 30%
+37% / +37% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
1.39/0.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.57/1.19
+18% / +96% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +20%
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
375 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 73%
14.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
10.9 Crosses 12.9
4.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guangzhou Evergrande
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Foshan Nanshi
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.14 xG 0.44
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
172 Passes 228
64% Pass Accuracy 72%
15 Box Touches 16
10 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
16.09.2023 Guangzhou Evergrande Guangzhou Evergrande 1-0 HT 1-0 Foshan Nanshi Foshan Nanshi ÇİN2
10.06.2023 Foshan Nanshi Foshan Nanshi 1-2 HT 0-2 Guangzhou Evergrande Guangzhou Evergrande ÇİN2
23.05.2023 Foshan Nanshi Foshan Nanshi 1-0 HT 0-0 Guangzhou Evergrande Guangzhou Evergrande ÇİN2
POST-MATCH Guangzhou Evergrande vs Foshan Nanshi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Foshan Nanshi edged past Guangzhou Evergrande 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 27% / 34% — and on the day Foshan Nanshi made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (61%) came in.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Guangzhou Evergrande had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Guangzhou Evergrande and 0.67 for Foshan Nanshi.

What was the final score of Guangzhou Evergrande vs Foshan Nanshi?

Guangzhou Evergrande 0-1 Foshan Nanshi in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guangzhou Evergrande vs Foshan Nanshi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guangzhou Evergrande win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Guangzhou Evergrande 39%, draw 27%, Foshan Nanshi 34%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Guangzhou Evergrande) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Guangzhou Evergrande) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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