Aberdeen 3-1 Kilmarnock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Cup, 9 Mar 2024

Aberdeen
3-1 HT 2-1
Kilmarnock
📅09/03/2024 · 🕒15:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Scotland - Cup – 2023/2024

Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.38
Draw
24%
3.11
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.6
Over 2.5
46%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.95
No
58%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.49
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
4.78
6+ Goals
9%
27.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.65
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.95
X/1 EV+ ✗
23%
4.98
X/2
10%
5.63
X/X
9%
3.88
2/1
8%
33.0
2/2
16%
4.34
2/X
7%
14.05
Value flag · X/1 at 4.98 — our 23% vs market 15.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
38%
+5.6pp
24%
Draw
29%
-4.6pp
32%
Away Win
32%
-0.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-4.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+4.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.6pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aberdeen v Kilmarnock — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aberdeen EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Kilmarnock EU Bookmakers 36%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
1.91/1.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/0.06
+26% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -48% / +150%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
272 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 67%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
30.0 Crosses –
3.0 Yellow Cards –

Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aberdeen
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Kilmarnock
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.13 xG 1.31
57% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
266 Passes 173
67% Pass Accuracy 60%
23 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
24.02.2024 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2-0 HT 1-0 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
06.12.2023 Aberdeen Aberdeen 0-1 HT 0-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
29.10.2023 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2-0 HT 1-0 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
08.04.2023 Aberdeen Aberdeen 2-0 HT 1-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
28.12.2022 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2-1 HT 2-0 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
01.10.2022 Aberdeen Aberdeen 4-1 HT 3-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP

Aberdeen 3-1 Kilmarnock — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aberdeen
3-1
AWAY Kilmarnock
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aberdeen got the better of Kilmarnock 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Aberdeen as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Aberdeen had 46% of the ball to Kilmarnock's 54%, shots finished 10-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kilmarnock led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Aberdeen and 1.33 for Kilmarnock.

What was the final score of Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock?

Aberdeen 3-1 Kilmarnock in the Scotland - Cup on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aberdeen win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Aberdeen 44%, draw 24%, Kilmarnock 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aberdeen) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aberdeen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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