New York City FC 1-2 Portland Timbers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 9 Mar 2024

New York City FC
1-2 HT 1-0
Portland Timbers
📅09/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

New York City FC vs Portland Timbers Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.8
Over 2.5
52%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.13
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.74
6+ Goals
10%
15.85
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.74 — our 27% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.68
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.7
X/1
14%
4.35
X/2
11%
7.43
X/X
14%
4.58
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
25.5
2/2
11%
5.67
2/X
8%
14.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 8% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-4.6pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.3pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.1pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

New York City FC v Portland Timbers — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New York City FC EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Portland Timbers EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +4%
1.79/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.71
-5% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -18%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
327 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 75%
28.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
16.2 Crosses 14.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2

New York City FC vs Portland Timbers Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New York City FC
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Portland Timbers
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.20 xG 1.45
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
488 Passes 302
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 25
22 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
25.06.2023 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 1-1 HT 1-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
11.12.2021 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 1-1 HT 0-1 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
02.08.2020 New York City FC New York City FC 1-3 HT 1-1 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers ABD
08.07.2019 New York City FC New York City FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers ABD
23.04.2018 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 3-0 HT 2-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
10.09.2017 New York City FC New York City FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers ABD

New York City FC 1-2 Portland Timbers — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New York City FC
1-2
AWAY Portland Timbers
1.32 xG 0.90
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 6
294 Passes 461
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
26 Box Touches 24
22 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH New York City FC vs Portland Timbers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portland Timbers squeezed past New York City FC 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was New York City FC at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, New York City FC had 40% of the ball to Portland Timbers's 60%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 1.32 to 0.90 — on chances, New York City FC could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Portland Timbers led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for New York City FC and 1.67 for Portland Timbers.

What was the final score of New York City FC vs Portland Timbers?

New York City FC 1-2 Portland Timbers in the USA - Major League on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New York City FC vs Portland Timbers?

Before kick-off our model rated a New York City FC win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split New York City FC 43%, draw 28%, Portland Timbers 29%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (New York City FC) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (New York City FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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