CA Sarmiento 3-1 Estudiantes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.84
Draw
33%
2.94
Away
36%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.48
Over 2.5
38%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.13
No
60%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2.17
2-3 Goals
36%
1.81
4-5 Goals
16%
5.76
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.73
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.9
X/1
7%
5.74
X/2
14%
4.74
X/X
17%
3.54
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
16%
3.64
2/X
8%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
32%
-0.8pp
33%
Draw
30%
+2.6pp
36%
Away Win
38%
-1.8pp
62%
Under 2.5
64%
-1.5pp
38%
Over 2.5
36%
+1.5pp
40%
BTTS Yes
43%
-3.2pp
60%
BTTS No
57%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA Sarmiento EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Estudiantes EU Bookmakers 42%
+2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -6%
1.14/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.01
+12% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +19%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
232 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 76%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
19.5 Crosses 17.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA Sarmiento
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Estudiantes
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.65 xG 1.61
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
203 Passes 334
63% Pass Accuracy 74%
13 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
24.10.2023 Estudiantes Estudiantes 2-1 HT 1-0 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
26.02.2023 Estudiantes Estudiantes 1-1 HT 0-0 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
15.06.2022 Estudiantes Estudiantes 2-1 HT 1-0 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
17.07.2021 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 0-3 HT 0-0 Estudiantes Estudiantes ARJ
11.09.2016 Estudiantes Estudiantes 1-0 HT 1-0 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
03.10.2015 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 0-1 HT 0-0 Estudiantes Estudiantes ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA Sarmiento
3-1
AWAY Estudiantes
1.18 xG 0.55
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
239 Passes 292
70% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 20
23 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH CA Sarmiento vs Estudiantes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Sarmiento got the better of Estudiantes 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (31% / 33% / 36%) promised a tight game; CA Sarmiento found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, CA Sarmiento had 47% of the ball to Estudiantes's 53%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.18 to 0.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Estudiantes led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for CA Sarmiento and 1.67 for Estudiantes.

What was the final score of CA Sarmiento vs Estudiantes?

CA Sarmiento 3-1 Estudiantes in the Argentina - Premier League on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA Sarmiento vs Estudiantes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Estudiantes win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split CA Sarmiento 31%, draw 33%, Estudiantes 36%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Estudiantes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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