Kapaz 3-3 Neftçi PFK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 9 Mar 2024

Kapaz
3-3 HT 1-1
Neftçi PFK
📅09/03/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 0-3 ✗
Azerbaijan - Super League – 2025/2026

Kapaz vs Neftçi PFK Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.32
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
51%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.8
Over 2.5
53%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
9%
X/2
13%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
31%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
26%
-2.6pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.6pp
51%
Away Win
48%
+3.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.3pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Kapaz v Neftçi PFK — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kapaz EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 52%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -8%
1.42/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.25
+26% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -6%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
228 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 73%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7

Kapaz vs Neftçi PFK Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kapaz
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Neftçi PFK
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
24.12.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 2-0 HT 1-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
06.08.2023 Kapaz Kapaz 1-0 HT 1-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
21.05.2023 Kapaz Kapaz 1-3 HT 1-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
16.03.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 2-2 HT 0-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
16.10.2022 Kapaz Kapaz 0-2 HT 0-1 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
14.08.2022 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 5-2 HT 3-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
POST-MATCH Kapaz vs Neftçi PFK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kapaz and Neftçi PFK shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 1-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Neftçi PFK at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Neftçi PFK led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Kapaz and 2.33 for Neftçi PFK.

What was the final score of Kapaz vs Neftçi PFK?

Kapaz 3-3 Neftçi PFK in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kapaz vs Neftçi PFK?

Before kick-off our model rated an Neftçi PFK win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Kapaz 24%, draw 25%, Neftçi PFK 51%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Neftçi PFK) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Neftçi PFK) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
9 Mar 2024
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