Sertaozinho 1-1 Itapirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Paulista A3, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
62%
1.47
Draw
19%
4.34
Away
19%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
Over
53%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Total Goals
0-1
27%
2-3
36%
4-5
23%
6+
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
3%
1/X
3%
X/1
35%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Sertaozinho win — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
62%
Home Win
64%
-2.0pp
19%
Draw
20%
-1.0pp
20%
Away Win
16%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sertaozinho The Market 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Itapirense The Market 20%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -34% / -34%
1.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/3.00
-50% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) / -47%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
437 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sertaozinho
1-1
AWAY Itapirense
72% Ball Possession 28%
19 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 1
14 Corners 2
POST-MATCH Sertaozinho vs Itapirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sertaozinho and Itapirense couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Sertaozinho at 62% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Sertaozinho had 72% of the ball to Itapirense's 28%, shots finished 19-4.

What was the final score of Sertaozinho vs Itapirense?

Sertaozinho 1-1 Itapirense in the Brazil - Paulista A3 on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sertaozinho vs Itapirense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sertaozinho win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Sertaozinho 62%, draw 19%, Itapirense 20%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sertaozinho), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sertaozinho) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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