Macara vs El Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Macara v El Nacional — Team-Based Signals
Macara vs El Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
2-1
HT 2-1
Macara
EKV1
1-0
HT 1-0
El Nacional
EKV1
0-1
HT 0-1
El Nacional
EKV1
1-2
HT 1-1
Macara
EKV1
Macara 1-0 El Nacional — Actual Match Statistics
Macara squeezed past El Nacional 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Macara as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Macara had 67% of the ball to El Nacional's 33%, shots finished 24-12, expected goals 2.66 to 0.31 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Macara's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Macara and 1.00 for El Nacional.
What was the final score of Macara vs El Nacional?
Macara 1-0 El Nacional in the Ecuador - Premier on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Macara vs El Nacional?
Before kick-off our model rated a Macara win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Macara 53%, draw 22%, El Nacional 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Macara), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.