Lens 1-0 Brest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 9 Mar 2024

Lens
1-0 HT 1-0
Brest
📅09/03/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Lens vs Brest Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.62
Over 2.5
48%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.95
No
50%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.56
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
25%
4.61
6+ Goals
10%
24.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.03
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.75
X/1
12%
4.48
X/2
12%
6.77
X/X
15%
3.93
2/1
7%
30.0
2/2
11%
5.42
2/X
8%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 52% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-2.4pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.4pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
58%
-6.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
42%
+6.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.6pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lens v Brest — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lens EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Brest EU Bookmakers 31%
+3% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +29%
1.65/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.37
+11% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +2%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
314 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 78%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
21.6 Crosses 18.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.7

Lens vs Brest Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lens
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Brest
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.76 xG 1.54
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
463 Passes 280
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
13.08.2023 Brest Brest 3-2 HT 1-2 Lens Lens FR1
05.02.2023 Brest Brest 1-1 HT 0-0 Lens Lens FR1
22.01.2023 Brest Brest 1-3 HT 1-3 Lens Lens FRK
07.08.2022 Lens Lens 3-2 HT 1-0 Brest Brest FR1
05.03.2022 Lens Lens 0-1 HT 0-0 Brest Brest FR1
21.11.2021 Brest Brest 4-0 HT 3-0 Lens Lens FR1

Lens 1-0 Brest — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lens
1-0
AWAY Brest
0.90 xG 0.74
41% Ball Possession 59%
6 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
295 Passes 457
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 22
11 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lens vs Brest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lens nicked a narrow win over Brest 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lens as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Lens had 41% of the ball to Brest's 59%, shots finished 6-9, expected goals 0.90 to 0.74.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brest led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lens and 2.00 for Brest.

What was the final score of Lens vs Brest?

Lens 1-0 Brest in the France - Ligue 1 on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lens vs Brest?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lens win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Lens 42%, draw 28%, Brest 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lens), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lens) ✓ Under 2.5
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