Motor Lublin 1-1 Polonia Warszawa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.8
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.75
Over 2.5
47%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.0
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
3.88
6+ Goals
10%
17.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
52%
-3.2pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.3pp
27%
Away Win
22%
+5.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
53%
+0.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
47%
-0.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.5pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Polonia Warszawa EU Bookmakers 25%
+41% / +41% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
3.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.29
+94% / -51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +17%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
324 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motor Lublin
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Polonia Warszawa
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.02.2024 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 3-2 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa HAZ
26.08.2023 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa 0-1 HT 0-0 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL1
29.10.2022 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 0-1 HT 0-0 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa POL2
POST-MATCH Motor Lublin vs Polonia Warszawa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motor Lublin and Polonia Warszawa couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Motor Lublin at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Motor Lublin had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Motor Lublin and 1.00 for Polonia Warszawa.

What was the final score of Motor Lublin vs Polonia Warszawa?

Motor Lublin 1-1 Polonia Warszawa in the Poland - 1st Division on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motor Lublin vs Polonia Warszawa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motor Lublin win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Motor Lublin 48%, draw 24%, Polonia Warszawa 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Motor Lublin), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Motor Lublin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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