EGS Gafsa 1-0 ES Metlaoui — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Tunisia - 1st Division Yükselme / Düşme, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.05
Draw
36%
2.88
Away
24%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
75%
1.41
Over 2.5
25%
2.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
31%
2.33
No
69%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
51%
2.0
2-3 Goals
28%
1.84
4-5 Goals
15%
6.61
6+ Goals
6%
34.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.0 — our 51% vs market 42.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
22%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
45%
-4.5pp
36%
Draw
31%
+4.4pp
24%
Away Win
24%
+0.1pp
75%
Under 2.5
67%
+7.5pp
25%
Over 2.5
33%
-7.5pp
31%
BTTS Yes
39%
-7.5pp
69%
BTTS No
61%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME EGS Gafsa EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY ES Metlaoui EU Bookmakers 28%
+40% / +40% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/0.93
+8% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / +22%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
386 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH EGS Gafsa vs ES Metlaoui
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

EGS Gafsa squeezed past ES Metlaoui 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 36% / 24%) promised a tight game; EGS Gafsa found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (75%), no to both teams scoring (69%), and both reads landed as well.

What was the final score of EGS Gafsa vs ES Metlaoui?

EGS Gafsa 1-0 ES Metlaoui in the Tunisia - 1st Division Yükselme / Düşme on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for EGS Gafsa vs ES Metlaoui?

Before kick-off our model rated a EGS Gafsa win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split EGS Gafsa 40%, draw 36%, ES Metlaoui 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (EGS Gafsa), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (EGS Gafsa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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