Phönix Lübeck 4-1 Holstein Kiel II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 9 Mar 2025

📅09/03/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.38
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
39%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.23
Over 2.5
47%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.49
No
49%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
26%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
38%
+1.1pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.4pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+2.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
63%
-12.2pp
49%
BTTS No
37%
+12.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Phönix Lübeck EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Holstein Kiel II EU Bookmakers 40%
+2% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -1%
2.22/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.69/1.99
+42% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -27%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
330 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Phönix Lübeck
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Holstein Kiel II
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.09.2024 Holstein Kiel II Holstein Kiel II 1-2 HT 1-1 Phönix Lübeck Phönix Lübeck ALMBÖL
11.11.2023 Phönix Lübeck Phönix Lübeck 1-3 HT 0-2 Holstein Kiel II Holstein Kiel II ALMBÖL
07.05.2023 Phönix Lübeck Phönix Lübeck 1-2 HT 0-1 Holstein Kiel II Holstein Kiel II ALMBÖL
30.10.2022 Holstein Kiel II Holstein Kiel II 1-1 HT 0-1 Phönix Lübeck Phönix Lübeck ALMBÖL
07.11.2021 Holstein Kiel II Holstein Kiel II 1-0 HT 0-0 Phönix Lübeck Phönix Lübeck ALMBÖL
28.08.2021 Phönix Lübeck Phönix Lübeck 2-3 HT 0-2 Holstein Kiel II Holstein Kiel II ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Phönix Lübeck vs Holstein Kiel II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Phönix Lübeck swept aside Holstein Kiel II 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 22% / 38% — and on the day Phönix Lübeck made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Holstein Kiel II led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Phönix Lübeck and 1.83 for Holstein Kiel II.

What was the final score of Phönix Lübeck vs Holstein Kiel II?

Phönix Lübeck 4-1 Holstein Kiel II in the Germany - Regional League on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Phönix Lübeck vs Holstein Kiel II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Phönix Lübeck win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Phönix Lübeck 39%, draw 22%, Holstein Kiel II 38%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Phönix Lübeck), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Phönix Lübeck) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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