FC Liefering 3-1 Ried — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - 1st Division, 9 Mar 2025

📅09/03/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
5.09
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
50%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.0
Over 2.5
46%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.49
2-3 Goals
37%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.11
6+ Goals
8%
10.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.49 — our 33% vs market 22.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
9.59
1/2
6%
22.1
1/X
7%
18.4
X/1
9%
11.55
X/2
15%
3.92
X/X
10%
5.87
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
28%
1.88
2/X
9%
16.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
17%
+8.2pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.9pp
50%
Away Win
62%
-12.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
46%
+7.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
54%
-7.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.7pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Liefering EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Ried EU Bookmakers 66%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +10%
1.58/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.20/0.75
+35% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +52%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
200 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 76%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
10.8 Crosses 25.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Liefering
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Ried
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.44 xG 3.09
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 24
6 Shots on Target 11
3 Corners 9
184 Passes 269
62% Pass Accuracy 69%
14 Box Touches 44
9 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
24.08.2024 Ried Ried 2-0 HT 0-0 FC Liefering FC Liefering AU2
15.03.2024 Ried Ried 3-2 HT 1-1 FC Liefering FC Liefering AU2
25.08.2023 FC Liefering FC Liefering 1-1 HT 1-0 Ried Ried AU2
12.07.2020 Ried Ried 2-2 HT 0-1 FC Liefering FC Liefering AU2
19.10.2019 FC Liefering FC Liefering 0-1 HT 0-0 Ried Ried AU2
15.03.2019 FC Liefering FC Liefering 2-6 HT 2-1 Ried Ried AU2
POST-MATCH FC Liefering vs Ried
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Liefering got the better of Ried 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Our pre-match lean was Ried at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ried led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for FC Liefering and 2.50 for Ried.

What was the final score of FC Liefering vs Ried?

FC Liefering 3-1 Ried in the Austria - 1st Division on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Liefering vs Ried?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ried win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split FC Liefering 25%, draw 25%, Ried 50%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ried) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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