Independiente Petrolero 3-2 Guabira — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bolivia - LFPB Küme Düşme, 9 Apr 2024

Independiente Petrolero
3-2 HT 1-0
Guabira
📅09/04/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Bolivia - LFPB Küme Düşme – 2024

Independiente Petrolero vs Guabira Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.64
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
25%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.86
Over 2.5
40%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
21%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
57%
-8.2pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.8pp
25%
Away Win
19%
+5.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
50%
+9.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
50%
-9.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.9pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Independiente Petrolero v Guabira — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Petrolero EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Guabira EU Bookmakers 22%
+2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -22%
1.59/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/2.10
-8% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / -20%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
350 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 73%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.2
22.5 Crosses 18.6
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.1

Independiente Petrolero vs Guabira Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Petrolero
3W-0D-2L
AWAY Guabira
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
0.89 xG 1.46
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
185 Passes 319
68% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 25
11 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.02.2024 Guabira Guabira 2-1 HT 1-0 Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero BOLİ
06.12.2023 Guabira Guabira 2-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero BOLİ
27.06.2023 Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero 1-0 HT 1-0 Guabira Guabira BOLİ
12.12.2021 Guabira Guabira 2-3 HT 1-1 Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero BOLİ
14.08.2021 Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero 2-1 HT 1-0 Guabira Guabira BOLİ

Independiente Petrolero 3-2 Guabira — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Petrolero
3-2
AWAY Guabira
2.10 xG 0.77
50% Ball Possession 50%
20 Total Shots 24
4 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 7
236 Passes 217
74% Pass Accuracy 70%
26 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Independiente Petrolero vs Guabira
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Petrolero squeezed past Guabira 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Independiente Petrolero as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Independiente Petrolero had 50% of the ball to Guabira's 50%, shots finished 20-24, expected goals 2.10 to 0.77 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Independiente Petrolero's control.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Independiente Petrolero had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Independiente Petrolero and 1.40 for Guabira.

What was the final score of Independiente Petrolero vs Guabira?

Independiente Petrolero 3-2 Guabira in the Bolivia - LFPB Küme Düşme on 09/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Petrolero vs Guabira?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Petrolero win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Independiente Petrolero 48%, draw 27%, Guabira 25%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Petrolero) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Petrolero) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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