Polonia Warszawa 2-1 Pogon Siedlce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 9 Apr 2025

📅09/04/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.0
Over 2.5
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.55
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.15
6+ Goals
12%
10.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-5.3pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.8pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+4.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+0.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-0.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
+0.3pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Polonia Warszawa EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Siedlce EU Bookmakers 25%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -6%
3.58/2.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/2.07
+104% / -58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -24%
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
407 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Polonia Warszawa
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Pogon Siedlce
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 2
22.09.2024 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 2-4 HT 0-1 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa POL1
13.11.2022 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa 0-1 HT 0-1 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce POL2
23.07.2022 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 2-1 HT 2-0 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa POL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Polonia Warszawa
2-1
AWAY Pogon Siedlce
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Polonia Warszawa vs Pogon Siedlce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Polonia Warszawa squeezed past Pogon Siedlce 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Polonia Warszawa as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Polonia Warszawa had 46% of the ball to Pogon Siedlce's 54%, shots finished 10-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Pogon Siedlce led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Polonia Warszawa and 1.67 for Pogon Siedlce.

What was the final score of Polonia Warszawa vs Pogon Siedlce?

Polonia Warszawa 2-1 Pogon Siedlce in the Poland - 1st Division on 09/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Polonia Warszawa vs Pogon Siedlce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Polonia Warszawa win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Polonia Warszawa 48%, draw 25%, Pogon Siedlce 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Polonia Warszawa), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Polonia Warszawa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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