Nairobi City Stars 3-2 TransMara Sugar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 9 May 2025

📅09/05/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
27%
2.94
Away
38%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.52
Over 2.5
40%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.06
No
57%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
11%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
11%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
TransMara Sugar win — 38%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+1.2pp
27%
Draw
30%
-3.3pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+2.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-1.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+1.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.4pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nairobi City Stars EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY TransMara Sugar EU Bookmakers 40%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
0.70/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.01
-24% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -12%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
261 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 400 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nairobi City Stars
0W-0D-1L
AWAY TransMara Sugar
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
21.09.2024 TransMara Sugar TransMara Sugar 1-0 HT 0-0 Nairobi City Stars Nairobi City Stars KEN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nairobi City Stars
3-2
AWAY TransMara Sugar
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
0 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Nairobi City Stars vs TransMara Sugar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nairobi City Stars squeezed past TransMara Sugar 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (35% / 27% / 38%) promised a tight game; Nairobi City Stars found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nairobi City Stars had 47% of the ball to TransMara Sugar's 53%, shots finished 9-10.

What was the final score of Nairobi City Stars vs TransMara Sugar?

Nairobi City Stars 3-2 TransMara Sugar in the Kenya - Premier League on 09/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nairobi City Stars vs TransMara Sugar?

Before kick-off our model rated an TransMara Sugar win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Nairobi City Stars 35%, draw 27%, TransMara Sugar 38%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (TransMara Sugar) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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