Tobol 1-0 Irtysh Pavlodar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kazakistan - Super League, 9 May 2026

📅09/05/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.86
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
24%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
16%
2/1
12%
2/2
10%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
50%
-3.7pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.1pp
24%
Away Win
24%
-0.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.5pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tobol EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Irtysh Pavlodar EU Bookmakers 27%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.42/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.76
+2% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -26%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
399 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tobol
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Irtysh Pavlodar
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
21.03.2015 Irtysh Pavlodar Irtysh Pavlodar 1-1 HT 1-0 Tobol Tobol KAZP
25.10.2014 Irtysh Pavlodar Irtysh Pavlodar 1-1 HT 0-0 Tobol Tobol KAZP
01.05.2014 Irtysh Pavlodar Irtysh Pavlodar 0-3 HT 0-2 Tobol Tobol KAZP
POST-MATCH Tobol vs Irtysh Pavlodar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tobol squeezed past Irtysh Pavlodar 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Tobol as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Tobol had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Tobol and 0.67 for Irtysh Pavlodar.

What was the final score of Tobol vs Irtysh Pavlodar?

Tobol 1-0 Irtysh Pavlodar in the Kazakistan - Super League on 09/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tobol vs Irtysh Pavlodar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tobol win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Tobol 46%, draw 30%, Irtysh Pavlodar 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tobol), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tobol) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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