Tobol vs Irtysh Pavlodar Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Tobol v Irtysh Pavlodar — Team-Based Signals
Tobol vs Irtysh Pavlodar Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-0
Tobol
KAZP
1-1
HT 0-0
Tobol
KAZP
0-3
HT 0-2
Tobol
KAZP
Tobol squeezed past Irtysh Pavlodar 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Tobol as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Tobol had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Tobol and 0.67 for Irtysh Pavlodar.
What was the final score of Tobol vs Irtysh Pavlodar?
Tobol 1-0 Irtysh Pavlodar in the Kazakistan - Super League on 09/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Tobol vs Irtysh Pavlodar?
Before kick-off our model rated a Tobol win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Tobol 46%, draw 30%, Irtysh Pavlodar 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tobol), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.