Ajax 4-0 Sint-Truiden — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 9 Jul 2024

📅09/07/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.53
Draw
24%
4.34
Away
19%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under
37%
2.59
Over Pick
63%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.56
No
48%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1
20%
5.69
2-3
35%
2.03
4-5
34%
2.62
6+
11%
6.14
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
23%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
57%
Home Win
62%
-4.6pp
24%
Draw
20%
+3.3pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+1.2pp
37%
Under 2.5
35%
+2.6pp
63%
Over 2.5
65%
-2.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.3pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax The Market 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Sint-Truiden The Market 21%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +42% / +42%
3.34/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.33/1.67
+70% / +59% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +96% / +4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
402 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 82%
32.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.6 Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax
4-0
AWAY Sint-Truiden
2.45 xG 0.52
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
448 Passes 418
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
32 Box Touches 5
8 Crosses 7
POST-MATCH Ajax vs Sint-Truiden
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax cruised past Sint-Truiden 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ajax as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (63%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Ajax had 51% of the ball to Sint-Truiden's 49%, shots finished 14-4, expected goals 2.45 to 0.52.

What was the final score of Ajax vs Sint-Truiden?

Ajax 4-0 Sint-Truiden in the Friendlies on 09/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax vs Sint-Truiden?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Ajax 57%, draw 24%, Sint-Truiden 20%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ajax) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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