Minnesota United 3-1 Chicago Fire — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 9 Jul 2025

Minnesota United
3-1 HT 0-1
Chicago Fire
📅09/07/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
USA - Open Cup – 2025

Minnesota United vs Chicago Fire Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.29
Over 2.5
53%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.53
No
47%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.51
2-3 Goals
38%
1.89
4-5 Goals
24%
2.75
6+ Goals
13%
7.43
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.71
1/2
7%
30.0
1/X
10%
12.8
X/1 EV+ ✗
21%
5.1
X/2
15%
7.5
X/X
9%
5.77
2/1
7%
21.5
2/2
9%
4.92
2/X
7%
13.45
Value flag · X/1 at 5.1 — our 21% vs market 15.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
47%
-3.7pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.8pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+1.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
40%
+7.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
60%
-7.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
61%
-8.4pp
47%
BTTS No
39%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Minnesota United v Chicago Fire — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Minnesota United EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Chicago Fire EU Bookmakers 32%
+28% / +28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +61% / +61%
1.63/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/0.63
+47% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / –
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
354 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 80%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
20.2 Crosses 15.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.0

Minnesota United vs Chicago Fire Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Minnesota United
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Chicago Fire
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.14 xG 1.58
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
369 Passes 376
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.07.2023 Minnesota United Minnesota United 2-3 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire CONLK
09.04.2023 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 2-1 HT 2-0 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
24.04.2022 Minnesota United Minnesota United 3-0 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
05.11.2020 Minnesota United Minnesota United 2-2 HT 0-1 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
12.05.2019 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 2-0 HT 2-0 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
17.03.2018 Minnesota United Minnesota United 2-1 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD

Minnesota United 3-1 Chicago Fire — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Minnesota United
3-1
AWAY Chicago Fire
3.58 xG 1.30
59% Ball Possession 41%
26 Total Shots 11
10 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 5
668 Passes 431
89% Pass Accuracy 84%
37 Box Touches 29
24 Crosses 9
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Minnesota United vs Chicago Fire
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Minnesota United beat Chicago Fire 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Minnesota United as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Minnesota United had 59% of the ball to Chicago Fire's 41%, shots finished 26-11, expected goals 3.58 to 1.30.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chicago Fire led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Minnesota United and 1.67 for Chicago Fire.

What was the final score of Minnesota United vs Chicago Fire?

Minnesota United 3-1 Chicago Fire in the USA - Open Cup on 09/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Minnesota United vs Chicago Fire?

Before kick-off our model rated a Minnesota United win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Minnesota United 43%, draw 26%, Chicago Fire 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Minnesota United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Minnesota United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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