San Jose Earthquakes 2-2 Austin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 9 Jul 2025

📅09/07/2025 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.92
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.15
Over 2.5
57%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.56
No
44%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.1
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
26%
2.88
6+ Goals
13%
8.54
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.62
1/2
5%
33.0
1/X
9%
12.6
X/1
18%
4.95
X/2
10%
7.94
X/X
9%
5.4
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
22.0
2/2
13%
5.45
2/X
6%
13.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.0 — our 10% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
48%
-0.4pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.2pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+2.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
43%
+0.6pp
57%
Over 2.5
57%
-0.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.4pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME San Jose Earthquakes EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Austin EU Bookmakers 30%
+34% / +34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-43% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
361 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 80%
39.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
34.9 Crosses
3.7 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME San Jose Earthquakes
0W-5D-1L
AWAY Austin
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
2.04 xG 1.68
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 5
334 Passes 337
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
29 Box Touches 21
24 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
26.05.2024 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 HT 1-1 Austin Austin ABD
07.04.2024 Austin Austin 4-3 HT 0-1 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
22.10.2023 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 HT 1-1 Austin Austin ABD
30.04.2023 Austin Austin 2-2 HT 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
07.08.2022 Austin Austin 3-3 HT 3-2 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
03.04.2022 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 2-2 HT 0-1 Austin Austin ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME San Jose Earthquakes
2-2
AWAY Austin
1.92 xG 2.49
53% Ball Possession 47%
27 Total Shots 12
11 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
391 Passes 342
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
48 Box Touches 24
38 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH San Jose Earthquakes vs Austin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

San Jose Earthquakes and Austin shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was San Jose Earthquakes at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, San Jose Earthquakes had 53% of the ball to Austin's 47%, shots finished 27-12, expected goals 1.92 to 2.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Austin led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 2.17 for Austin.

What was the final score of San Jose Earthquakes vs Austin?

San Jose Earthquakes 2-2 Austin in the USA - Open Cup on 09/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for San Jose Earthquakes vs Austin?

Before kick-off our model rated a San Jose Earthquakes win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split San Jose Earthquakes 48%, draw 23%, Austin 29%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (San Jose Earthquakes) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (San Jose Earthquakes) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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